It is dangerous to bet the family farm or one’s hard earned reputation on the timely appearance of good sense, just decision-making or ‘doing the right thing.’ However, in this case, I bite the bullet: Judge Kavanaugh will not be confirmed for the Supreme Court. At least 3 Republican senators will remember how to be real senators and represent the USA itself, and not just go along with partisan group-think.

There have been enough past rejections of nominees to have formed a bit of a pattern for the faux pas that derail such Supreme Court nominations.

For example, according to a July article by Olivia Waxman, the five principal reasons such nominees have been rejected include: (1) the background record of the nominee hides something nefarious that is brought into the public light. For example, a nominee who had been a law professor had smoked marijuana doing his teaching career. The public unveiling of that fact led to the nominee’s withdrawal. Another nominee from Lyndon Johnson had remained a close adviser to the POTUS during his time as a federal judge, and that proved deadly. Another nominee was found to have made racist and brazenly anti-union statements in a previous campaign for governor, and that ended his nomination to the Court. (2) The candidate is unqualified for the post. George W. Bush tried to nominate his office secretary, and had to withdraw the name, for example, after a torrent of criticism about her lack of judicial experience. (3) The nominee is a political zealot and cannot hide it. (4) Ethical questions of character and temperament which the nominee cannot shake. (5) An appointment during a presidential re-election year.

Judge Kavanaugh has at least three of those fundamentals staring him in the face—the nefarious background, the political zealotry, and the sticky ethical questions. The FBI investigation ending this week will probably not find any ‘smoking gun’ in his background. However, that investigation will most likely show again that the Judge is a habitual liar. He was at the party Dr. Ford mentioned, he did often (and maybe still does) drink to excess, and he was the character described in Mark Judge’s writing about their wild, sexually assaultive teenage years. A lying judge does not engender public confidence.

Most of the judge’s career has been as a political operative for the White House, and reminded the public of that with his performance last Thursday. Mr. Kavanaugh also demonstrated last Thursday a nastiness, disrespect for authority, and a lack of impartiality. A sitting federal judge cannot be known for those traits.

As the third branch of government, the federal court does not have a military or a police force to enforce its decisions. All it really has is the confidence of the American people in the integrity of its rulings and the belief that the court is fundamentally impartial. It cannot afford to lose that public belief. Although it is not expected, a surprise note to President Trump from the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court requesting the withdrawal of Judge Kavanaugh’s name would be understood at this juncture.

Judge Kavanaugh would bring a deep blemish with him to the Court, and a reputation that he would be unfair and deeply political in his rulings. That perception would tarnish the whole Court. Perhaps the Court’s power to leaven such outlier behavior, as it has in the past, can be used to bolster Judge Kavanaugh’s chances in spite of his warts. But, from this seat, I’m betting his nomination goes down.

Professor David L. Horne is founder and executive director of PAPPEI, the Pan African Public Policy and Ethical Institute, which is a new 501(c)(3) pending community-based organization or non-governmental organization (NGO). It is the stepparent organization for the California Black Think Tank which still operates and which meets every fourth Friday.