We are barely into 2015, but it seems the 2016 presidential race is in full swing—well at least in the Republican Party. The GOP has a broad range of candidates vying for the nomination. This ranges from more mainstream candidates, such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. And long shot-candidates such as Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and an African American, Dr. Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon.
Harvey Englander, a political consultant who lives in Los Angeles, said, “The Republicans have an interesting group of candidates.”
Some of the Republican candidates have extreme views, he said, on vaccination, climate change and immigration. These views often put off independent and Democratic voters, leaving the candidate with little mainstream appeal.
“It makes me wonder if Republicans can be a national party again,” said Englander, who is managing partner of the public relations firm Englander, Knabe and Allen. “They keep pandering to the most conservative elements. Republicans seem to be appealing to a smaller and smaller group of people, who don’t represent the mainstream.”
Englander said the way the primaries are structured tends to exacerbate the problem.
“The Republican primaries tend to elect people who appeal to the core and the core is moving to the right,” Englander said.
However, a large number of voters are centrists and if you move too far left or right, you risk alienating them, Englander said.
“You have to appeal to the core and then move to the center,” Englander said.
Currently, Carson is the only African American among the Republican candidates. But Carson has no history in politics, and is largely seen as an outsider. Businessman Herman Cain was a candidate for the Republican nomination in 2012, but he ran into personal scandals and was revealed to be lacking in foreign policy knowledge. Like Carson, Cain also had no political experience.
Englander said there may be a minority Republican presidential nominee in the future, and cited former Oklahoma Rep. J.C. Watts as a good candidate.
“There are a number of attractive Asian and Latino Republicans who have a chance of winning the nomination,” he said.
Englander said former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner in the Democratic party, although there are some other names that have been thrown into the ring, such as Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. Englander also said former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, an African American, would be a great vice presidential candidate. Patrick has said he is not running in 2016, but wouldn’t rule out a future run.
“If she (Hillary) decides to run, she will be difficult to beat,” Englander said.
However, Hillary is not a sure bet for the Democratic nomination.
“Eight years ago no one knew who Barack Obama was, so anything can happen,” Englander said.
He pointed out Hillary may be going against historical precedents noting that a Democrat has not succeeded another Democrat since the late 1940s.
Englander added there maybe more presidential candidates of color in the future. California Attorney General Kamala Harris has expressed interest in the senatorial seat vacated by Barbara Boxer. Local Latino leaders are calling for a Latino senator and State Controller John Chiang may be a future gubernatorial candidate. According to Englander, serving as a senator from California is often a springboard for a presidential or vice presidential nomination.
Southern California writer and political analyst Earl Ofari Hutchinson believes Hillary will be the eventual Democratic nominee in 2016. According to Hutchinson, Hillary would make a formidable candidate.
“Experience, name recognition, cash cow on funding, and she can bag women, minority and blue-collar White voters,” said Hutchinson, who has a new book coming out in March called “From King to Obama: Witness to a Turbulent History.”
Hutchinson said the GOP still has a hard time attracting African American voters.
“The GOP is persona non-grata among most Black voters,” Hutchinson said. “The years of open and subtle bigotry, its anti-government, anti-poor stance, and its absolute refusal until recently to make any effort at attracting Blacks…it is perceived as an anti-Black party.”
The GOP seems to be taking steps to broaden its appeal. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Rep. Mia Love (R-Utah) are two African Americans serving in high-profile national positions. Love has also agreed to serve in the Congressional Black Caucus, even though she first said she wanted to dismantle the organization.
However, Hutchinson is not impressed with these new additions to the GOP.
“Both are extreme right-wing conservatives and are just as ‘anti-government’ in regard to spending on social programs, entitlements and anti-civil rights expansion as conservative Whites in the GOP,” Hutchinson said.
Hutchinson is also not impressed with Carson’s candidacy, dismissing him as a “sideshow.” Carson is just one of several GOP candidates who realistically have little chance of actually winning the nomination. For some of these candidates running has a lot to do with ego, Hutchinson said.
“It’s part of the political jockeying game—it’s part ego, part they believe they have something to offer and part ideology (conservative that is,),” Hutchinson said.
Although the Republican field is crowded, Hutchinson is pretty sure who won’t get the nomination.
“I can tell you who it likely won’t be—Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and probably not Christie. They carry too much political baggage. The early betting odds are on Jeb Bush,” Hutchinson said. “However, if the GOP is smart they’d find a fresh face. A governor who is a fiscal conservative, hasn’t overtly alienated minority and women voters, and can present a fresh-sounding move-the-country-forward vision—even a conservative one.”
